Ahead of the Curve

My, how we like being in the forefront of things. Not that this is proof that we are, but still, we take pleasure where we can.

A couple weeks ago I posted my annual Give Thanksgiving a Chance rant, which generated far less discussion than I expected, but along comes Marginal Revolution, one of my favorite blogs (roughly half the blogs I read regularly are economics blogs, and some of them are of the highly technical variety. I don't know why, really. I had one economics class in college and got a C for lack of attendance), discussing the question of when is too early for Christmas decorations to go up. What agreement there is appears to be on my side, meaning right after Thanksgiving. Harry Rodas, a Raving Fan, argues (unpersuasively, to me, but you might disagree - read the comments) that retailers are simply making value-driven decisions about what to have up when. Harry buys Christmas lights in October and he's obviously not alone. Of course, I buy seeds and potting soil in October, but I have to go to the Internet to do it. Harry and I are both odd, for certain, but his oddity seems to more exactly coincide with the public's predilections than mine does. At least on this point.

Still, read the Marginal Revolution for data on why, economically, I'm still right.

Ten-month low on the 10-year-bond yield, meaning declining mortgage rates again. I am seriously quoting people 5.875% on 30-year mortgages (good credit, equity in the house, actual job, maybe even money in the bank). This is a serious surprise to me, and apparently also to the Fed, which can't seem to get any reaction from the markets now at all, no matter what it says. It's possible that the Fed is now so out of touch that investors simply ignore it. Remind me to finish and post my very long essay on why the information age destroys almost all the old methods of "controlling" the economy. Probably not today, more's the pity.