Two for Five

As Arthur (almost-client from Delaware) Ecklund pointed out to me over the weekend, my predictions didn't all pan out. BYU most emphatically did not beat San Diego State, by 17 points or 3 points or even negative 15 points. Cleveland got swept at home and did not keep their part of the bargain. TCU apparently is not just the luckiest team in the MWC. They may be the luckiest, but that has nothing to do with them slamming New Mexico.

I get a push on Boston and New York, who did finish tied as predicted, but were not tied with Cleveland.

I called Michigan/Michigan State right on the number. And it is clear that no main-line commentator is going to clue up to Bill Bennett's point anytime soon. An excellent dissection of response comes from our buddies at PowerLine.

So, two for five. Two for four, maybe, because of the push. Not as impressive as it might be, because of the gimme on Bennett. Like the media would get a clue. But I am pretty happy about the Michigan thing.

This is two weeks in a row that I have called something right on. I guess that means that if I make a prediction, you have to be worried, because there's a 25% chance that the prediction will come true. Not quite as good as the weatherman, but a lot better than the average economic forecast. There's good company for you!

The markets were bad, bad, bad today. The 30-year is 6% and climbing. The 5-year ARM is acually exactly the same price now. Watch for the inverted yield curve, which we talked about here. The really bad news is the clients we have that are still making up their minds, or are unable to find that house they want. They are the ones that are going to get hurt by it. So far, the pain is fairly minimal, and I need to emphasize that. I'm not being fatalistic here. With luck, things will stabilize about right here for a month or so.

There is something I think I have to say, though it's hard, and doesn't reflect that well on us. We have an unhappy client in Pennsylvania that took the time today to express some of his hurt and frustration. Without getting into details, he felt like his closing costs were too high and that he had been taken advantage of. There is a fair amount of evidence to support his contention.

We spent a long time talking about this case when it closed a month or so ago, and spent another few hours dealing with it today. We made some mistakes. There were things we could have done that we didn't do - I believe with the best intentions - that would have made things harder for the client at the time but ultimately would have made it clearer to the client which of all the parties was really on his side. End result: we are 2,000 miles away and cannot explain what went on, especially through the heavy flak being thrown up by a title company that charged - no exaggeration - $8000 of taxes, fees, and miscellaneous to close a $160,000 loan.

This is not meant to be an excuse. There's no denying that we did not perform well. We tried. We made mistakes. We offered to correct them. We did correct them as best we could. We offered to correct the mistakes other people made. And in the end, we did what we always do - we told him that whatever it took for him to be happy, we would do. This is not a promise we make lightly, and he did not take it that way. He laid a heavy bill on us. From his perspective, the bill is entirely justified. He does not know what we know, and communication is at a stage where we cannot show him.

We stand by our promises. We will do what we said we would do.

I mention this to make a serious point about how mortgages work. If you come to us with no job and no cash, with credit that declines by 40 points over the course of the four months it takes to find and purchase a house, and on that basis you want someone to lend you over $100,000, and things get a little rocky and costs mount, please understand that that's how loans work. We will do - we will always do - everything in our power to keep you in the loop and explain to you exactly what the costs are in time and money. Those things may change. We look like the bad guy when they do, but we will still try to make sure you know. The process can be hard. It can take a long time. We will undoubtedly make mistakes along the road. We're doing a job that requires coordination of hundreds of thousands of dollars, as many as ten separate companies, often a dozen or more individuals, and frequently one very scared couple that just wants to have a place of their own to live in. We're human and we screw up and we're sorry. We will fix what we can and pray that God makes the rest okay.

Mostly, we do pretty well. We have very few unhappy clients. But right now, we have one. And John, we're sorry. From all of us, please know, we're sorry. We apologize here publicly, and we'll do so privately as well.

One day, I hope we can talk about what happened.

Cj