Monday, January 09, 2006

Twelfth Night, and the Dow

I didn’t spend a lot of time pushing this on here, but we had a very, very successful Twelfth Night Celebration on Friday, and raised some serious money for the American Cancer Society.  We’re grateful to the Apollo Dance Hall in American Fork, as well as our sponsors Hammond Promotions, Horizon Title, Kunzler Financial, Picture Perfect Utah, Sign-A-Rama in Murray (Brad Hill), The Music Makers dance band, and Weddings 4 Less.  All of you were marvelous.  Thank you from the bottom of our hearts.

Pictures to follow.

The Dow cracked 11,000 earlier today, then immediately retreated.  What that means for bonds is…nothing.  Bonds were absolutely flat today.  I think there’s a good deal of nervousness about the late January Fed meeting, which is the one where we have a changing of the guard from Alan Greenspan to Ben Bernanke.  If the Fed signals that its rate hikes are done with for now, that’s going to be really good for mortgage rates.  It ought to do this.  There is no inflation, or threat of it.  The yield curve remains inverted – seriously inverted (that’s when the short-term bonds have a higher yield than the longer-term bonds).  That always means a recession, or it has always meant that in the past.  Best way to avert an inflation, other than tax cuts, is an infusion of cheap money into the economy via lower interest rates.  I’m sure Bernanke does not read this blog, but I’m assuming that if I have this figured out, he does, too.  We’ll see.

Meantime, 30-year rates are still hovering at 6%, and 15-year rates are 5.375% or thereabouts.  Still lots and lots of money to be made in real estate in Utah.

It’s going to be a terrific year.